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Economic Research

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, as part of the Federal Reserve System, promotes price stability and sustainable growth in New England and the nation. In support of this function, the Bank’s economists advise Federal Reserve decision-makers on monetary policy and financial markets. They conduct innovative research to further our understanding of monetary policy, the national and regional economy, markets, and supervisory policy. Through presentations, papers, publications, conferences, and advisory activities, they share their insights and expertise with fellow professionals, policymakers, and the public at large. The Bank’s research activities are centered in a number of focused units: the Research Department, the New England Public Policy Center, the Research Center for Behavioral Economics and Decisionmaking, the Consumer Payments Research Center, and the Quantitative Analysis Unit of the Supervision, Regulation, and Credit Department.

Recent Papers and Publications

Reviving Mortgage Securitization: Lessons from the Brady Plan and Duration Analysis
by Fabià Gumbau-Brisa and Catherine L. Mann
Public Policy Discussion Paper P09-4

The Optimal Level of Deposit Insurance Coverage
by Michael Manz
Working Paper W09-6

A Question of Liquidity: The Great Banking Run of 2008?
by Judit Montoriol-Garriga and Evan Sekeris
QAU Working Paper QAU09-4

The President's Report to the Board of Directors pdf
June 2009

Overview of New England's Economic Performance in 2008
New England Economic Indicators
, Q2 2009

Market Proxies, Correlation, and Relative Mean-Variance Efficiency: Still Living with the Roll Critique
by Todd Prono
QAU Working Paper 09-3

Geographic Variations in a Model of Physician Treatment Choice with Social Interactions
by Mary A. Burke, Gary M. Fournier, and Kislaya Prasad
Working Paper No. 09-5

Empirical Estimates of Changing Inflation Dynamics
by Jeff Fuhrer, Giovanni Olivei, and Geoffrey M. B. Tootell
Working Paper No. 09-4

Revenue Forecasting Processes in New England
by Yael Shavit
NEPPC Brief No. 09-4

Towards a More Prosperous Springfield, Massachusetts: Project Introduction and Motivation pdf
by Lynn Browne, DeAnna Green, with Marques Benton, Prabal Chakrabarti, Yolanda Kodrzycki, Ana Patricia Muñoz, David Plasse, Richard Walker
Public & Community Affairs Discussion Paper 09-1

Employing the Region's Assets: Baby Boomers Meeting New England's Skilled Workforce Needs
by Heather Brome and Sandra Hackman
NEPPC Conference Report 08-1

Has Overweight Become the New Normal? Evidence of a Generational Shift in Body Weight Norms
by Mary A. Burke, Frank Heiland, and Carl Nadler
Working Paper W09-3

Forgive and Forget: Who Gets Credit after Bankruptcy and Why?
by Ethan Cohen-Cole, Burcu Duygan-Bump, and Judit Montoriol-Garriga
QAU Working Paper 09-2

Reducing Foreclosures
by Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher S. Gerardi, Lorenz Goette, and Paul S. Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P09-2

Lasting Connections: Using Internships to Retain Recent College Graduates in New England
by Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Policy Brief 09-3

Research Review
Issue No. 10, July-December 2008

The Option Value of Consumer Bankruptcy
by Ethan Cohen-Cole
QAU Working Paper 09-1

Another Hidden Cost of Incentives: The Detrimental Effect on Norm Enforcement
by Andreas Fuster and Stephan Meier
Working Paper W09-2

Why Are (Some) Consumers (Finally) Writing Fewer Checks? The Role of Payment Characteristics
by Scott Schuh and Joanna Stavins
Working Paper W09-1

Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis
by Kristopher S. Gerardi, Andreas Lehnert, Shane M. Sherland, and Paul S. Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P09-1

Retention of Recent College Graduates in New England
by Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Policy Brief 09-2

The Supply of Recent College Graduates in New England
by Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Policy Brief 09-1

Subprime Mortgages, Foreclosures, and Urban Neighborhoods
by Kristopher S. Gerardi and Paul S. Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P08-6

Race, Obesity, and the Puzzle of Gender Specificity
by Mary A. Burke and Frank Heiland
Working Paper W08-8

The Balance Sheet Channel
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Enrique Martinez-Garcia
QAU Working Paper 08-7

Household Bankruptcy Decision: The Role of Social Stigma vs. Information Sharing
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Burcu Duygan-Bump
QAU Working Paper 08-6

The Responsiveness of Married Women's Labor Force Participation to Income and Wages: Recent Changes and Possible Explanations
by Katharine Bradbury and Jane Katz
Working Paper W08-7

A Portrait of New England's Immigrants
by Antoniya Owens
NEPPC Research Report 08-2

Global Imbalances and the Evolving World Economy
Book based on the Bank's 51st economic conference

Looking Behind the Aggregates: A Reply to “Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008”
by Ethan Cohen-Cole, Burcu Duygan-Bump, José Fillat, and Judit Montoriol-Garriga
Working Paper QAU08-5

Summary of the Workshop on Consumer Behavior and Payment Choice
by Scott Schuh and Joanna Stavins
Public Policy Discussion Paper P08-5

Inflation Targeting—Central Bank Practice Overseas
by Jane Sneddon Little and Teresa Foy Romano
Public Policy Brief B08-1

The Impact of Immigration on Occupational Wages: Evidence from Britain
by Stephen Nickell and Jumana Saleheen
Working Paper W08-
6

Labor Supply in the New Century
Book based on the Boston Fed's 52nd economic conference

The Future of the Skilled Labor Force in New England: The Supply of Recent College Graduates
by Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Research Report No. 08-1

GARCH-Based Identification and Estimation of Triangular Systems
by Todd Prono
Working Paper No. QAU08-4

Classroom Peer Effects and Student Achievement
by Mary A. Burke and Tim R. Sass
Working Paper W08-5

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective
Papers and presentations from the Boston Fed's 53rd economic conference

Public-Private Partnerships, Cooperative Agreements, and the Production of Public Services in Small and Rural Municipalities
by Robert D. Mohr, Steven Deller, and John Halstead
NEPPC Working Paper No. 08-4

Financing Municipalities in New England:
Revisiting the State-Local Relationship
pdf
by Robert Clifford
New England Public Policy Center Conference Report 07-1

The Value of Risk: Measuring the Service Output of U.S. Commercial Banks
by Susanto Basu, Robert Inklaar, and J. Christina Wang
Working Paper W08-4

Blood Donations and Incentives: Evidence from a Field Experiment
by Lorenz Goette and Alois Stutzer
Working Paper W08-3

A New Approach to Raising Social Security’s Earliest Eligibility Age
by Kelly Haverstick, Margarita Sapozhnikov, Robert K. Triest, and Natalia Zhivan
Public Policy Discussion Paper P08-4

The Lengthening of Childhood
by David Deming and Susan Dynarski
Public Policy Discussion Paper P08-3

Negative Equity and Foreclosure: Theory and Evidence
by Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher Gerardi, and Paul S. Willen
Working Paper NEPPC08-3

Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the Subprime Crisis and What We Don’t
by Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher Gerardi, Lorenz Goette, and Paul S. Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P08-2

Credit Card Debt and Payment Use
by Charles Sprenger and Joanna Stavins
Working Paper W08-2

Household Debt Repayment Behaviour: What Role Do Institutions Play?
by Burcu Duygan-Bump and Charles Grant
Working Paper QAU08-3

Designing State Aid Formulas: The Case of a New Formula for Distributing Municipal Aid in Massachusetts
by Bo Zhao and Katharine Bradbury
Working Paper W08-1 / NEPPC 08-2

Research Review pdf
Issue No. 8 (July-December 2007)

Is Obesity Contagious? Social Networks vs. Environmental Factors in the Obesity Epidemic
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Jason M. Fletcher
QAU Working Paper No. QAU08-2

Why Does Unemployment Hurt the Employed? Evidence from the Life Satisfaction Gap between the Public and Private Sectors
by Simon Luechinger, Stephan Meier, and Alois Stutzer
Public Policy Discussion Paper No. P08-1

Credit Card Redlining
by Ethan Cohen-Cole
QAU Working Paper No. QAU08-1

The Dynamic between Municipal Revenue Sources and the State-Local Relationship in New England
by Richard F. Dye
NEPPC Working Paper No. 08-1

Can Young Professionals Afford to Buy a Home in New England? pdf
New England Public Policy Center Policy Brief 08-1

Wanting It All: The Challenge of Reforming the U.S. Health Care System
Proceedings of the Boston Fed's 50th Research Conference, held in June 2005

A Principal Components Approach to Estimating Labor Market Pressure and Its Implications for Inflation
by Michelle Barnes, Ryan Chahrour, Giovanni Olivei, and Gaoyan Tang
Public Policy Brief No. B07-2

Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium
by Matteo Iacoviello, Fabio Schiantarelli, and Scott Schuh
Working Paper No. W07-16

Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences, and Foreclosures
by Kristopher Gerardi, Adam Hale Shapiro, and Paul Willen
Working Paper No. W07-15

The Effects of Expectations on Perception: Experimental Design Issues and Further Evidence
by Tyler Williams
Working Paper No. W07-14

Active Decisions and Pro-Social Behavior
by Alois Stutzer, Lorenz Goette, and Michael Zehnder
Working Paper No. W07-13

Social Networks and Vaccination Decisions
by Neel Rao, Markus M. Möbius, and Tanya Rosenblat
Working Paper No. W07-12

Discounting Financial Literacy: Time Preferences and Participation in Financial Education Programs
by Stephan Meier and Charles Sprenger
Public Policy Discussion Paper No. P07-5

Loss Distribution Estimation, External Data and Model Averaging
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Todd Prono
Working Paper No. QAU07-8

Is New England Experiencing a "Brain Drain"? Facts about Demographic Change and Young Professionals pdf
by Heather Brome
NEPPC Discussion Paper No. 07-3

The Labor Market for Direct Care Workers
by Reagan Baughman and Kristin Smith
NEPPC Working Paper No. 07-4

The Impact of Wetlands Rules on the Prices of Regulated and Proximate Houses: A Case Study
by Katherine A. Kiel
NEPPC Working Paper No. 07-3

The Fiscal Impacts of College Attainment
by Philip A. Trostel
NEPPC Working Paper No. 07-2

Do Loans Increase College Access and Choice? Examining the Introduction of Universal Student Loans
by Bridget Terry Long
NEPPC Working Paper No. 07-1

How Much Is a Friend Worth? Directed Altruism and Enforced Reciprocity in Social Networks
by Stephen Leider, Markus M. Möbius, Tanya Rosenblat, and Quoc-Anh Do
Working Paper No. W07-11

Space and Time in Macroeconomic Panel Data: Young Workers and State-Level Unemployment Revisited
by Christopher L. Foote
Working Paper No. W07-10

Demonstration Effects in Preventive Care
by Ritesh Banerjee, Ethan Cohen-Cole, and Giulio Zanella
Working Paper No. QAU07-7

Reaching the Goal: Expanding Health Insurance Coverage in New England
Current Strategies and New Initiatives
New England Public Policy Center Research Report 07-1

Who's Who in Consumer Payments Research? An Overview of Industry Payments Research Companies pdf
Emerging Payments Research Group Briefing

Information Diffusion Based Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies
by Athanasios Bolmatis and Evan G. Sekeris
Working Paper QAU07-6

Doing Good or Doing Well? Image Motivation and Monetary Incentives in Behaving Prosocially
by Dan Ariely, Anat Bracha, and Stephan Meier
Working Paper W07-9

Population Aging, Labor Demand, and the Structure of Wages
by Margarita Sapozhnikov and Robert K. Triest
Working Paper W07-8

Research Review pdf
Issue No. 7 (January-June 2007)

GASB 45 and Other Post-Employment Benefit Promises: The Fog Is Clearing pdf
by Steffanie Brady
NEPPC Policy Brief 07-7

Does Competition Reduce Price Discrimination? New Evidence from the Airline Industry
by Kristopher S. Gerardi and Adam Shapiro
Working Paper W07-7

Consumer Behavior and Payment Choice: 2006 Conference Summary
by Margaret Carten, Dan Littman, Scott Schuh, and Joanna Stavins
Public Policy Discussion Paper P07-4

The Potential Economic Impact of Increasing the Minimum Wage in New Hampshire gif
by Antoniya Owens
NEPPC Discussion Paper 07-2

How Strong is the Macroeconomic Case for Downward Real Wage Rigidity?
by Steinar Holden and Fredrik Wulfsberg
Working Paper W07-6

Small Employers and Expanded Health Insurance Coverage gif
by Phil Primack
NEPPC Policy Brief 07-5

The Theory of Life-Cycle Saving and Investing
by Zvi Bodie, Jonathan Treussard, and Paul Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P07-3

Stock Market Report
June 21, 2007

Overborrowing and Undersaving: Lessons and Policy Implications from Research in Behavioral Economics pdf
by Marques Benton, Stephan Meier, and Charles Sprenger
Community Affairs Discussion Paper 07-4

Monthly Mutual Fund Report
June 2007

Minimally Altruistic Wages and Unemployment in a Matching Model
by Julio J. Rotemberg
Working Paper W07-5

Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy
by Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi
Working Paper W07-4

Massachusetts Employment Growth 1996–2006: Effects of Industry Performance and Industry Composition
by Katharine Bradbury and Yolanda K. Kodrzycki
Public Policy Brief B07-1

The Fiscal Capacity of New England pdf
by Matthew Peter Nagowski
NEPPC Policy Brief 07-4

Unpacking Social Interactions
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Giulio Zanella
Working Paper QAU07-4

Optimal Retirement Asset Decumulation Strategies: The Impact of Housing Wealth
by Wei Sun, Robert K. Triest, and Anthony Webb
Public Policy Discussion Paper P07-2

Impatience and Credit Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment
by Stephan Meier and Charles Sprenger
Working Paper W07-3

Using Unexpected Recalls to Examine the Long-Term Earnings Effects of Job Displacement
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki
Working Paper W07-2

Research Review pdf
Issue No. 6 (July-December 2006)

Who Are the Uninsured, and Why Are They Uninsured? pdf
by Antoniya Owens
NEPPC Policy Brief No. 07-3

Crowded out of the Housing Market pdf
by Darcy Rollins Saas with Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Policy Brief No. 07-2

Covering the Uninsured: Costs, Benefits, and Policy Alternatives for New England pdf
by Matthew Nagowski
NEPPC Conference Report CR06-1

The Boston Fed Study of Consumer Behavior and Payment Choice: A Survey of Federal Reserve System Employees
by Marques Benton, Krista Blair, Marianne Crowe, and Scott Schuh
Public Policy Discussion Paper P07-1

GARCH-Based Identification of Triangular Systems with an Application to the CAPM: Still Living with the Roll Critique
by Todd Prono
Working Paper W07-1

School Finance in Vermont: Balancing Equal Education and Fair Tax Burdens gif
by Darcy Rollins Saas
NEPPC Discussion Paper 07-1

The New England Rental Market gif
by Alicia Sasser
NEPPC Policy Brief 07-1

Research Review pdf
Issue No. 5 (January-June 2006)

Measuring Disparities in Non-School Costs and Revenue Capacity among Massachusetts Cities and Towns
by Katharine Bradbury and Bo Zhao
Working Paper W06-19 / NEPPC 06-3

Do Subsidies Increase Charitable Giving in the Long Run? Matching Donations in a Field Experiment
by Stephan Meier
Working Paper W06-18

Managing the Risk in Pension Plans and Recent Pension Reforms
by Richard W. Kopcke
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-7

Measurement of Unemployment
by Katharine Bradbury
Public Policy Brief B06-2

The Changing Housing Market: A Bang or a Whimper? gif
by Karl E. Case
NEPPC Policy Brief 06-4

International Risk-Taking, Volatility, and Consumption Growth
by Maria Giduskova and Borja Larrain
Working Paper W06-17

How Small is Zero Price? The True Value of Free Products
by Kristina Shampan’er and Dan Ariely
Working Paper W06-16

Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence on the Role of Real Estate Assets Following the Wealth Cycle of 1990-2002
by Michael R. Donihue and Andriy Avramenko
Working Paper W06-15

In Noise We Trust? Optimal Monetary Policy with Random Targets
by Ethan Cohen-Cole and Bogdan Cosmaciuc
Working Paper W06-14

Measuring Fiscal Disparities Across the U.S. States
by Yesim Yilmaz, Sonya Hoo, Matthew Nagowski, Kim Rueben, and Robert Tannenwald
NEPPC Working Paper 06-2

Using State and Metropolitan Area House Price Cycles to Interpret the U.S. Housing Market
by Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Nelson Gerew
Public Policy Brief B06-1

Hollywood East? Film Tax Credits in New England pdf
Darcy Rollins Saas
NEPPC Policy Brief 06-3

Reading the Fine Print: How Details Matter in Tax and Expenditure Limitations
by Heather Brome and Darcy Rollins Saas
NEPPC Research Report 06-3

New Hampshire's Quest for a Constitutionally Adequate Education gif
by Oyebola Olabisi
NEPPC Discussion Paper 06-2


New England Migration Trends gif
by David Agrawal
NEPPC Discussion Paper 06-1

Do Households Benefit from Financial Deregulation and Innovation? The Case of the Mortgage Market
by Kristopher Gerardi, Harvey S. Rosen, and Paul Willen
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-6

Social Dynamics of Obesity
by Mary Burke and Frank Heiland
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-5

Industry Reference Guide for Consumer Payments Research
Q2 2006

New England Community Developments
Issue 2, 2006

A Tale of Tails: An Empirical Analysis of Loss Distribution Models for Estimating Operational Risk Capital
by Kabir Dutta and Jason Perry
Working Paper W06-13

Ensuring Adequate Electrical Capacity in New England pdf
by Carrie Conaway
NEPPC Policy Brief No. 06-2

Minimally Acceptable Altruism and the Ultimatum Game
by Julio J. Rotemberg
Working Paper W06-12

U.S. Health Care Reform: Difficult Trade-Offs
2005 Annual Report

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach
by Adam Hale Shapiro
Working Paper W06-11

Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model
by Peter N. Ireland and Scott Schuh
Working Paper W06-10

The Challenge of Energy Policy in New England
by Carrie Conaway
NEPPC Research Report 06-2

Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England
by Antoniya Owens
NEPPC Conference Report 05-2

Efficient Expropriation: Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy
by Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, and Gita Gopinath
Working Paper W06-9

Collateralized Borrowing and Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice
by Paul Willen and Felix Kubler
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-4

Risk Bearing, Implicit Financial Services, and Specialization in the Financial Industry
by J. Christina Wang and Susanto Basu
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-3

Do People Behave in Experiments as in the Field? Evidence from Donations
by Matthias Benz and Stephan Meier
Working Paper W06-8

The Impact of Group Membership on Cooperation and Norm Enforcement: Evidence Using Random Assignment to Real Social Groups
by Lorenz Goette, David Huffman, and Stephan Meier
Working Paper W06-7

Pension Accounting and Corporate Earnings: The World According to GAAP
by Peter Fortune
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-2

A Survey of Economic Theories and Field Evidence on Pro-Social Behavior
by Stephan Meier
Working Paper W06-6

Consumer Behavior and Payment Choice: A Conference Summary
by Marianne Crowe, Scott Schuh, and Joanna Stavins
Public Policy Discussion Paper P06-1

An Overview of Chapters 40R and 40S: Massachusetts’ Newest Housing Policies
by Darcy Rollins
NEPPC Policy Brief No. 06-1

Cyclical Wages in a Search and Bargaining Model with Large Firms
by Julio J. Rotemberg
Working Paper W06-5

Supply Matters for Asset Prices: Evidence from IPOs in Emerging Markets
by Matías Braun and Borja Larrain
Working Paper W06-4

Dishonesty in Everyday Life and its Policy Implications
by Nina Mazar and Dan Ariely
Working Paper W06-3

Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time over Five Decades
by Mark Aguiar and Erik Hurst
Working Paper W06-2

The Potential Economic Impact of Increasing the Minimum Wage in Massachusetts
by Alicia Sasser
New England Public Policy Center Research Report N06-1

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism
by Peter N. Ireland
Working Paper W06-1

Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?
by Borja Larrain and Motohiro Yogo
Working Paper W05-18

Deciding to Distrust
by Iris Bohnet and Stephan Meier
Public Policy Discussion Paper P05-4

Research Review
Issue No. 3 (January-June 2005)

The Challenge of Energy Policy in New England
by Carrie Conaway
NEPPC Working Paper N05-2

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U.S. Family Income Mobility and Inequality, 1994 to 2004

Foreclosure Rates and Subprime Mortgage Originations in Massachusetts

 

Research News and Events

Prospects for an Economic Recovery
May 21, 2009
President & CEO Rosengren's speech to The Worcester Economic Club

Making Monetary Policy During a Financial Crisis
February 27, 2009

President & CEO Rosengren's speech at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum

A Proposal to Help Distressed Homeowners:
A Government Payment-Sharing Plan
pdf
Revised: February 10, 2009
by Chris Foote, Jeff Fuhrer, Eileen Mauskopf, and Paul Willen

The Future of Life-Cycle Saving & Investing offsite
October 22-24, 2008
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