The 1990-91 Recession in Historical Perspective
by Stephen K. McNees
January/Februrary 1992
Nearly a decade has passed since the last U.S. recession
ended, and
memories of prior recessionary experiences may now have
grown dim.
The objective of this article is twofold: to provide
a concise review of
post-World War II recessions, with an eye to identifying
their most
distinctive features as well as their common elements;
and to investigate
the extent to which knowledge of a recessionary period
provides insight
into the subsequent expansion.
The article’s conclusions are necessarily tentative
as the date the
1990-91 recession ended had not been officially designated
at the time of
its writing. Even though this recession was characterized
by several
distinctive and still puzzling features, this is not
uncommon for recessions.
This article finds that, contrary to common assertion,
the severity
of a recession provides little guidance to the course
of the subsequent
expansion.
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